Study Finds Multiple Pathways to 100% Clean Energy

A recent Department of Energy study found that there are multiple potential pathways to 100% clean energy production by 2035, all of them requiring unprecedented investment in technology deployment to meet increasing electric demand.

The study, Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035, which was conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, found that in the least-cost scenario, wind and solar power would account for between 60% to 80% of total energy production.

The research cited three different paths to carbon neutrality, identifying a constrained scenario, an infrastructure scenario, and a scenario not reliant on carbon capture and storage (CCS).

The constrained scenario assumes that government and firms will be limited in their capacity to build out new transmission lines and new renewable energy technologies. As a result, it would make new nuclear capacity more cost-competitive, but require it to be built between 2030 and 2035 at a rate four times faster than the historical average.

The infrastructure scenario assumes full development of electric grid enhancements, allowing maximum integration of renewable energy sources, like wind and solar. The No CCS scenario excludes carbon capture technologies, pushing for 100% clean electricity using only renewable sources, without relying on capturing and storing emissions from fossil fuel power plants.

In each of the scenarios, technology must be deployed at unprecedented rates. Energy plants would have to scale up their overall production by over three times the 2020 levels, including a combined 2 terawatts (TW) of wind and solar energy alone. This would require a sustained exponential growth of wind and solar generation and capacity. Across all scenarios, 5–8 gigawatts of new hydropower and 3–5 gigawatts of new geothermal capacity are also deployed by 2035.

Storage capacity is also extremely important when dealing with an increase in generation such as that proposed in the study. Not all clean energy sources are going to be equally available at different times of the year, so the ability to store generated energy for later use is quite important. This would require a significant scaling up of the current storage capacity, with more than 2 TW of storage capacity being added.

This shift to 100% clean energy does not come without challenges, as it is estimated that the transmission capacity needed to meet the net-zero goal by 2035 is over three times the current capacity in the U.S. This would involve installing up to 10,000 miles of new high-capacity power lines across the country in order to transmit energy from wind-rich areas that generate significant power to the high-consumption centers on the east coast of the U.S.

Existing infrastructure is a large constraint to this goal of exponential development. From transmission, to generation, to storage capacity, the 2020 levels are less than 30% of what is required to sustain the growth necessary to meet the net-zero goal by 2035. This will be a significant challenge with the pushback that is seen on some current proposed clean energy generation projects, such as property value complaints and environmental issues