Renewables, Natural Gas Use Will Meet Summer Electric Demand

When the temperatures rise and the air conditioning is cranked up, the increased energy demand will be met largely will electricity produced from renewable sources and natural gas.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently forecast that summer natural gas consumption for electricity generation will reach near the record 44.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the peak summer months of July through August in the U.S. The record was set in the summer of 2023.

While a 3% overall increase in electricity generation is forecast for this summer, the amount of natural gas consumption is not expected to rise to meet it. Instead, that generation increase will largely be met through renewable energy production.

This year’s forecast mirrors a trend that the EIA has seen in the energy mix for power generation over the past few years, as it has shifted more to renewables and natural gas while coal has suffered a sharp drop. The low cost of natural gas has made it more competitive with coal, and has also contributed to drop in CO2 emissions.

Gas-fired generation has increasingly been used to meet the growing demand for energy. U.S. natural gas generation capacity has increased by 19% since since 2014, at the same time the amount of power generation has grown by 60%.

While much of the natural gas  is burned in combined-cycle gas-powered plants, simple-cycle plants, also known as peaking plants, are also used to meet high electric demand periods. Combined-cycle plants use natural gas to power a turbine, and the resulting heat is also used to power steam turbine. Simple-cycle plants use only natural gas turbines.

The rise of natural gas and renewables has come at the expense of coal, while has been declining since 2014. A recent EIA report noted that electric generation from coal decreased about 23% between 2021 and 2023. Coal’s market share for power plant generation fell below 20% for the first time in 2020, as coal-fired plants are retired due to strict emissions regulations and the increasing competitiveness of other generation sources.