Half of U.S. Sees Elevated Risk to Electric Reliability

Warning signals continue to mount about the rising threats to the reliability of the nation’s electrical grid. The latest is a recent report from the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) highlighting the challenges that the bulk power system faces over the next 10 years.

The NERC 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment finds that well over half of the U.S. is at an elevated or high risk of energy shortfalls over the next 5 to 10 years. This is due to continued planned power plant retirements, rapidly increasing energy demand, and ongoing barriers to increasing generation and transmission. NERC is a non-profit international regulatory authority that oversees the reliability of the North American electric grid to ensure that power is available consistently and even during periods of extreme weather.

Mark Olson, NERC manager of reliability assessments, noted in a statement that demand growth is at its highest point in the past 20 years, making forecasting and planning more difficult. “Meanwhile announced generator retirements over the 10-year period total 115 gigawatts (GW) and are largely being replaced by variable generation.” While that energy mix will work at most times, it will not be adequate for peak periods of severe weather, such as winter storms and heat waves. Firm, around-the-clock generation from coal- and gas-fired plants and nuclear will continue to be needed to ensure reliability.

The recent Arctic blast that affected much of the country has further illustrated that the grid is being stretched thin. PJM Interconnection, the regional grid operator in the Mid-Atlantic, issued a “maximum generation alert.” This indicates that all available resources were being committed to meet high electricity demand and reserve commitments, and that PJM may have to export less power to other interconnected regional grids. 

“As older fossil-fuel fired generators retire and are replaced by more solar photovoltaic and wind resources, the resource mix is becoming increasingly variable and weather-dependent,” since renewable energy is not always available, the NERC report states. “Natural gas-fired generators are a vital bulk power system resource,” to be able to ramp up and down to meet variations.

At the same time, demand growth forecasts continue to climb, as large industrial and commercial centers connect, and the development of energy-sucking data centers continues at a rapid pace. The report also noted that while electric transmission projects are increasing significantly, they often face siting and permitting issues. The report also noted that a separate NERC study on interregional electric capacity among the 10 regional transmission organizations found that an additional 35 GW of transfer capability was needed across North America to improve reliability during extreme conditions. 

The NERC report makes a number of recommendations to improve the reliability of the grid and the speed at which new electric capacity can be added. These include:

• Carefully managing generator deactivations, and find ways to extend their service when needed for reliability;

• Streamlining permitting and siting for generation and transmission projects;

• Continuing to improve the reliability of natural gas-operated pipelines and plants in winter weather after problems came to light following Winter Storm Elliott in ;2022 and

• Making sure that federal regulators and regional transmission organizations continue to ensure reliable service through policy and market changes.